Model Best, Base, and Worst Cash-Flow Scenarios

Cash is the one number that can end a business, so leadership wants to see it under more than a single set of assumptions. Building best/base/worst cash scenarios by hand means cloning a model three times and keeping the driver changes straight. This prompt structures the whole comparison in one pass, period by period. The most important output is the point where cash turns negative under each scenario. A base case that survives but a worst case that runs dry in month seven is a planning signal you act on now, not later. By isolating which drivers you flex, the prompt also tells you which assumptions actually move the cash outcome, so you know where to focus attention. Every figure is labeled a modeled projection, not actual cash, because scenario outputs are inherently uncertain. Use it to frame conversations about reserves, timing, and contingency — and to make worst-case planning a routine exercise rather than a panic one.

What you can expect back

Cash-flow scenarios — 12 months (modeled projections, not actual cash):

Summary:
| Scenario | Ending cash | Min cash | First negative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best (6% growth, 30-day collections) | ~$1.9M | $820K (M1) | none |
| Base (4%, 45-day) | ~$1.3M | $710K (M2) | none |
| Worst (1%, 60-day) | ~$520K | $410K (M5) | none |

In all three scenarios cash stays positive, but the worst case dips to ~$410K mid-year before recovering as revenue compounds. Quarterly tax payments cause visible dips in months 3, 6, 9, and 12.

The two assumptions that move the outcome most: (1) revenue growth rate — the spread between 1% and 6% accounts for most of the ending-cash gap; (2) collections timing — slower collections deepen the mid-year trough even when annual revenue is similar. Reserve planning should target the worst-case minimum, not the ending balance.

Illustrative example — your results will vary by tool and inputs.

Get sharper results

• 01Flex only the two or three drivers that genuinely vary; changing everything at once makes it impossible to see what's driving the result.
• 02Watch the minimum cash, not just ending cash — a scenario can end healthy yet pass dangerously close to zero mid-period.
• 03Include lumpy outflows (taxes, annual renewals) explicitly so the dips show up where they'll actually hit.
• 04Ask for the worst case to assume drivers move against you simultaneously — that's the planning case that matters.

Adapt it for your case